Ss worked at a task consisting of 15 anagrams. ½ of the Ss failed (initial failure) and ½ succeeded (initial success) at the 1st 5 anagrams. ½ were told the anagrams were easier than most (high expectation) and ½ that they were more difficult than most (low expectation). All Ss rated their chances of success before attempting each anagram. The last 10 anagrams were of 50% difficulty. Measures of n Achievement and Test Anxiety were available. Results showed that mean performance on the last 10 anagrams was significantly (p < .01) lower after initial failure than after initial success. Probability estimates reflected the pattern of success and failure and shifted more after failure than after success. Success-oriented Ss made more "typical" changes in probability estimates in the success condition; failure-oriented Ss made more of these typical changes in the failure condition. Performance scores correlated positively with initial probability estimates in the high expectation-initial success group. Results were discussed in terms of the theory of achievement motivation and the transfer effects of prior experience.