People Focus on Optimistic Scenarios and Disregard Pessimistic Scenarios While Predicting Task Completion Times

by Ian R. Newby-Clark, Michael Ross, Roger Buehler, Derek J. Koehler, and Dale Griffin

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied (Volume 6, Issue 3, pp. 171-182) 2000
  • Psychology

Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overly optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participants to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predictions. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion either alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios did not affect predictions or accuracy and were consistently rated less plausible than optimistic scenarios (Experiments 1-3). Experiment 4 independently manipulated scenario plausibility and optimism. Plausibility moderated the impact of optimistic, but not pessimistic, scenarios. Experiment 5 supported a motivational explanation of the tendency to disregard pessimistic scenarios regardless of their plausibility. People took pessimistic scenarios into account when predicting someone else's completion times. The authors conclude that pessimistic-scenario generation may not be an effective debiasing technique for personal predictions.