The Influence of Egocentrism and Focalism on People's Optimism in Competitions: When What Affects Us Equally Affects Me More
by Paul D. Windschitl, Justin Kruger, Ericka Nus Simms
- Psychology
Six experiments investigated people’s optimism in competitions. The studies involved hypothetical and
real competitions (course grades in Experiments 1 and 2, a trivia game in Experiments 3–5, and a poker
game in Experiment 6) in which the presence of shared adversities and benefits (factors that would
generally hinder or help the absolute performance of all competitors) was manipulated. Shared adversities
tended to reduce people’s subjective likelihoods of winning, whereas shared benefits tended to increase
them. The findings suggest that when people judge their likelihood of winning, their assessments of their
own strengths and weaknesses have greater impact than their assessments of their competitors’ strengths
and weaknesses. We identify egocentrism and focalism as two causes of the bias. The experiments
revealed moderators of this bias, but also illustrated its robust nature across a variety of conditions.